长三角制造业集聚的现状及其影响因素研究

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摘 要：制造業是我国实体经济的主体，与农业、服务业相比，制造业的集聚现象更加普遍。集聚经济是促进制造业增长和布局调整的核心力量，当前我国制造业正亟待转型升级和布局优化。为研究制造业集聚现象及其影响因素，利用区位熵指标，测算长三角地区25个地级及以上城市代表性制造业的集聚度，研究发现：2006—2016年期间，长三角制造业的集聚水平总体上呈现为稳定且缓慢下降的趋势，其中核心城市的下降幅度更大。通过全局Moran’I指数的计算，发现长三角各城市的制造业集聚具有空间相关性。结合理论分析和相关检验结果，构建空间杜宾模型，探究长三角制造业集聚的影响因素。结果显示，良好的交通基础设施、扩大的市场规模和配套企业投资是影响制造业集聚的重要因素，而劳动力数量已不再是影响长三角制造业集聚的主要因素。为此的政策建议是加强区域产业协同发展，推进交通基础设施建设，并在技术和人力资本上增加投入。

关 键 词：制造业集聚;影响因素;空间溢出;长三角

DOI：10.16315/j.stm.2019.04.009

中图分类号： F 062.9

文献标志码： A

收稿日期： 2019-06-14

作者简介： 许修齐（1994—），女，硕士研究生;

项章特（1995—），男，硕士研究生.

Current situation and influencing factors of manufacturing industry

agglomeration in the Yangtze River Delta：based on SDM model

XU Xiu-qi1， XIANG Zhang-te2

（1.School of Economics， Sichuan University， Chengdu 610065，China;

2.School of Manufacturing Science and Engineering， Sichuan University， Chengdu 610065，China）

Abstract：Manufacturing is the mainstay of China’s economy， compared with agriculture and service industries， the agglomeration of manufacturing is more common. Agglomeration economy is the core force to promote manufacturing growth and layout adjustment，and it is urgent to transform and upgrade. To study the phenomenon of manufacturing agglomeration and its influencing factors，this paper measures the concentration of representative manufacturing of cities in the Yangtze River Delta with the location entropy index. It is found that the concentration level of the Yangtze River Delta manufacturing industry is generally stable and slowly decreasing during 2006—2016， and the core cities have a sharp decline. Furthermore， it is found that the manufacturing agglomeration of the cities in the Yangtze River Delta is spatially correlated through the calculation of the global Moran’I index. Combined with theoretical analysis and related test results， a spatial Dubbin model was constructed to explore the factors affecting the industrial agglomeration of the Yangtze River Delta. The results show that the transportation infrastructure， the size of market， supporting and enterprise investment are important factors affecting the agglomeration of manufacturing industry， and the number of labor is no longer the main factor affecting the industrial agglomeration of the Yangtze River Delta. The policy recommendations for this are to strengthen the coordinated development of regional industries， promote the construction of transportation infrastructure， and increase investment in technology and human capital.

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